China is a great power now with a modern military. But China has threats and interests all around their land and sea borders. Right now China seems focused out to sea with Taiwan as the primary focus of China’s military development. Around China’s perimeter, America, India, Russia, and now Japan are playing a Great PACOM Game to get China focused militarily on somebody else. Which makes for interesting tensions among the anti-China alignment. Work to make sure we aren’t too clever and give China opportunities to split us.
India has incentive to prevent China from conquering Taiwan (tip to OPFOR Journal):
India and China are locked in a structural rivalry that extends beyond their territorial land border disputes, even as Russia shares defence and strategic ties with New Delhi. The seizure of Taiwan would carry significant implications for India’s maritime strategy and its growing ambitions in the Indian Ocean Region and the wider Indo-Pacific. Indeed, China could subsequently turn toward the forceful resolution of its territorial claims against India. Balancing Chinese ambitions, therefore, becomes a strategic necessity for Indo-Pacific partners. Therefore, India’s strategy would need to factor in the materialisation of Russia-China military alignment over Taiwan, as well as the commitments of the United States and other regional partners.
I assume this need is why India has moved from Look East to Act East:
As India has pivoted away from viewing Pakistan as its primary enemy to pivot to face off against China, India has had policies starting from "Look East" moving on to "Act East." If India wants to "Fight East" to keep Chinese naval power away from the Indian Ocean, holding the line in the South China Sea would benefit from defense ties with Taiwan.
And why ultimately it could lead to Fight East:
India would also like to push their naval shield further east. The Andaman Islands are a major barrier. That shield gives India options during a land border struggle with China. And a forward shield would limit China’s ability to exploit its land-based missile threat to India’s navy.
And keeping Taiwan fighting would really extend the shield far from India.
Still, India already has a strong line to defend at their Andaman and Nicobar islands should the Chinese solve their “Malacca dilemma” choke point. So I have to ask if India’s extending reach to Taiwan is more about keeping China pointed out to sea or if it is an effort to fight China in the South China Sea to keep Taiwan free.
Is that former option outrageous? Not if I’m being fair. I’ve long wanted to prioritize distracting China inland as superior to either deterring China from invading Taiwan or defeating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan:
China continues to look to Central Asia trade routes to avoid the problem of having their sea lines of communication cut during war. I welcome China's attention to the Asian interior.
Stratfor highlights China's drive to improve relations and trade routes with Central Asia. Fear of hostile navies is the key driver for this effort[.] …
Of course, if China has major land lines of supply and major sea lines of supply, China will need to split their defense dollars on both sea and land power (along with associated air power to support both) rather than focus on one type of threat. Indeed, I think we should encourage China’s focus inland:
While I would rather defeat China in war than lose; and while I’d rather deter a hostile China from initiating a war against us or our allies than win a war; I’d much rather have China’s attention focused on the interior of Asia where we lack significant interests to defend.
If China spends defense dollars on land and air power to project power into their own west and into Central Asia, that is money not spent on a fleet and supporting air power that threatens us and our allies in the western Pacific.
Russia pointed China at America, so it is fair for America to play the Great PACOM Game and point China inland—hopefully at Russia. But that has the side effect of getting China to look more at India, too, which is increasingly friendly to America after its long Cold War era of “non-aligned” suspicion.
Problems for India are increased if America—and Japan has the same interest—succeeds in getting China more focused on the Asian interior than the western Pacific. If that happens, China could ratchet up pressure on the contested border with India. And attempt to project power into the Indian Ocean.
India may have an interest in preventing China from capturing Taiwan, but India also needs China focused on Taiwan indefinitely—or until India can build up its side of the border with China.
India will need to calibrate how much it helps Taiwan in order to keep Taiwan temptingly vulnerable to China so China continues to focus on air-naval power aimed to the east without pushing China to actually invade Taiwan. What if China wins?
And America will need to watch India’s level of support for Taiwan and be prepared to make up for any pull back on blocking a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. We would like India’s help. But we cannot rely on their help and thus let India have control of the spigot on the level of Taiwan’s defense.
The Great PACOM Game will demand a lot of attention as its Calvin Ball level of rules shift.
NOTE: I clipped a CIA map from here.
BZ Semper Fi Brother and have a Blessed day my friend!!!