Concealing Russian Appeasement
Classics Saturday
[Photo by Juan Pablo Melo on Unsplash]
For a long time it confused me that Putin would loudly claim NATO is a threat to Russia when it was self-evident to me that NATO was disarming at a rapid clip. America was withdrawing troops and at one time had no tanks in Europe. Sure, NATO “expanded” east—that is, ex-Soviet vassals eagerly joined to remain free—but NATO lacked the logistics infrastructure or plans to defend the new states in the east.
I also realized that Russia was selling the kind of arms to China that effectively pointed China out to sea at America.
At some point I connected that with old observations that Russia hoped to rebuild its military by 2020 and that China and Russia had a 20-year border agreement expiring around that time. A post I linked to in the first essay below (at “Perhaps one day rather soon”). So I speculated that Russia was buying time by appeasing China so that China wouldn’t raise the issue of the massive amount of land Russia extorted from China in the 19th century. And by loudly claiming toothless NATO was a threat, Russia appeared strong—not weak—against a weak military organization unable to react dangerously. And claiming NATO as a threat was an excuse to rearm that didn’t rely on pointing at China while Russia was too weak, eh?
As the agreement was to expire, I kept looking for information on it. For months I saw nothing. And then I finally noticed an obscure article that noted the old 20-year agreement had been extended five years. So I wrote another post—the second below.
Later, I looked at Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in light of this agreement and extension. I believe Russia hoped a short and glorious war against Ukraine would begin the rebuilding of the Russian empire and break NATO. This would free Russia to face China as a military equal with a cowed West on its western border.
Oopsky.
/BEGIN POST/
Friday, October 10, 2014
Putin seems insanely paranoid about the West and NATO. Perhaps it is very rational for him to pretend NATO is a threat to hide the groveling to China.
Admiral Stavridis, in excerpts from his memoir published in the Naval Institute Proceedings, reflects my early view of Russia after the Cold War (no link, I'm just reading from hard copy and typing—you're welcome):
Throughout the early days of my time at NATO I was reasonably optimistic about our relations with Russia because I figured that, in the end, they would have nowhere else to go. Suppose you were a Russian strategic planner. You look to the southeast and see China--not a likely partner. Central Asia, to the south, consists largely of Islamic countries with a culture that could not be less like your own. ...
The Russians need to face facts: By midcentury Turkey will surpass Russia in population. Russia's only realistic option is to try and integrate with Europe. Therefore, logic says the Russian should work toward an accommodation with NATO, stop trying to split apart the United States and Western Europe (which is counterproductive and distorts their relations with Europe), and accept the inevitable.
Instead, Russia has spent the post-Soviet era trying to please China by—until recently—selling arms to China that China then copied, and coming to agreements with China on the border that give China room to push for more one day.
Perhaps one day rather soon.
And Russia complains loudly about American and NATO plots against Mother Russia when in fact NATO in Europe has mostly disarmed while America was happy to not think about Russia much.
From our point of view, this makes no sense. Can't Russia see that the West is no threat while China is the threat? Why not work with us?
Well, from the Russian point of view, Russia is acting very logical.
Russian power collapsed in 1991, leaving their Far East vulnerable to China whose power soon began to rise even as Russia's power continued to erode.
Was it logical for Russia to openly treat China as a threat and cozy up to the West that was disarming and never going to help Russia defend the Amur River line?
Not really, when you think about it. Yes, in the end, Russia will have to recognize that China is a threat and not NATO. But we're far from whenever "the end" is and until then Russia can't afford to anger China.
So Russia sells weapons designed to point China's modernizing military out to sea against America, Taiwan, and Japan rather than against Russia.
This isn't just clever politics. This is a form of appeasement.
Which, as it was before World War II, a reasonable reaction to a stronger power that has gotten a bad name from World War II as a means to delude yourself into thinking you've stopped an aggressor with pieces of paper.
As I've written, appeasement properly done can make sense if it allows you to avoid war with a stronger power and then use that time to build up your strength to reverse that imbalance.
In many ways, that is what Russia is doing. They have been appeasing China until they can rebuild their strength. One sign of their rebuilding is their massive slow down in weapons sales to China that allowed China to steal military technology from Russia.
But appeasing a stronger power is humiliating. Especially for a former superpower suddenly turned into a near-Third World, alcohol-addled country losing population every day.
So what are you to do when you must appease China?
Pretend the real threat is something that is actually no threat at all—NATO and behind that alliance, America.
Poke at us and what are we going to do? Invade Russia? Hah! European NATO countries struggled to put a division's worth of real troops in Afghanistan.
So NATO is a safe threat for Russia to highlight. NATO isn't going to make Russia pay much a price for treating us as an enemy. And the lack of threat can be put down to the vigilance of Russia in holding back the next Hitler or Napoleon who dreams of sweeping all the way to Moscow and owning that Jewel of the Steppe.
The problem for Russia is that by the time they feel secure enough to recognize that China is the real threat to Mother Russia, NATO and the West will be so disgusted with Russia that Moscow won't be able to even hope for our help should China decide that Russia's Far East is really a Core Interest of China that should return to the loving embrace of the Han Empire.
If we're going to be fully logical, here.
UPDATE: I suspect a close look at these new deals will show a continued pattern of Russian appeasement to keep China's growing power at bay:
Visiting Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, witnessed the signing of the about 40 agreements after holding the 19th China-Russia Prime Ministers' Regular Meeting.
The documents, including governmental accords and business contracts, also cover trade, people-to-people exchanges, advanced technology, satellite navigation, currency swap and customs.
I do look forward to reading analysis about the deals.
UPDATE: As part of a tour of China ("China: The Slow But Certain Road to Conquest"), Strategypage doesn't paint a good picture of the deal:
Russia is being forced to depend on China for tech and cash it can no longer get from the West because of the growing sanctions (over Ukraine. As much as Russian leaders loathe and fear NATO, many also resent being forced to grant China access to Russian markets, raw materials and military technology in payment for help coping with the sanctions. Russian leaders believe they can handle China and Chinese leaders believe their economic power will give them unprecedented control over Russia. Someone has miscalculated here and it is as yet unclear who. While China gains more raw materials and export markets along with improvements to its locally developed weapons, Russia is forced to halt its efforts to diversify its economy away from dependence on raw materials exports. The diversification depended on Western tech and investment. That has been halted for the moment and the Chinese can’t replace it. Many Russians see this as a bad decision and that helps fuel the growing popular opposition to the government.
Not all Russians are happy with this policy, it seems.
Friday, February 26, 2021
Russian Appeasement Extended Five Years
Russia is scheduled to continue appeasing China for five more years.
China not too subtly bullied Russia into transferring missile defense technology to China:
As an incentive for Russia to cooperate, and provide the needed tech, Chinese Internet censors were ordered to allow open discussion about Chinese claims on a quarter of the Russian Far East and most of the prime coastal areas. China never cancelled these claims, even in the 1940s and 50s when China was very dependent on Russia.
This Chinese pressure made Russia's appeasement of China less concealed. And have no doubt. What Russia is doing is appeasement:
Russia complains loudly about American and NATO plots against Mother Russia when in fact NATO in Europe has mostly disarmed while America was happy to not think about Russia much.
From our point of view, this makes no sense. Can't Russia see that the West is no threat while China is the threat? Why not work with us?
Well, from the Russian point of view, Russia is acting very logical.
Russian power collapsed in 1991, leaving their Far East vulnerable to China whose power soon began to rise even as Russia's power continued to erode.
Was it logical for Russia to openly treat China as a threat and cozy up to the West that was disarming and never going to help Russia defend the Amur River line?
Not really, when you think about it. Yes, in the end, Russia will have to recognize that China is a threat and not NATO. But we're far from whenever "the end" is and until then Russia can't afford to anger China.
So Russia sells weapons designed to point China's modernizing military out to sea against America, Taiwan, and Japan rather than against Russia.
This isn't just clever politics. This is a form of appeasement.
The Russian-Chinese treaty of 2001 that muted Chinese claims was set to expire this year. The treaty also required Russia to provide military technology to China. Hence the Chinese propaganda offensive on territorial claims to push Russia to share missile defense technology.
You recall the Chinese claims, right?
Does China seem like the kind of country that just lets old territorial claims die? And for China, how old is the 19th century, really?
But rather than let the treaty expire, at the end of last year the treaty was extended 5 years:
The Russian-Chinese Treaty of Good Neighborliness, Friendship and Cooperation that expires in July 2021 will be extended for another five years with its basic provisions remaining intact, while introducing some modifications, the Russian ambassador in Beijing, Andrey Denisov, said on Tuesday.
Man, that got little air play in the West, eh? I look for this and saw nothing. It took a web search to get the December 2020 news. I assume the basic provisions are that Russia provides technology (while it can before China passes them by in all defense technology) in exchange for China being quiet about the border.
The missile defense technology transfer really hurts Russia, which relies on nukes for territorial integrity. Especially in the weakly held Far East.
And Russia will need to treat NATO like an enemy for five more years. So Moscow's moment of clarity is put off.
I wonder what the treaty "modifications" were? I assumed Russia would have to pay a price for an extension of China's silence on the border.
Clearly Russia did not reach economic and military benchmarks by 2020 that would have allowed Russia to end their policy of appeasement. One more 5-year plan will do the trick, eh?
Luckily for Russia, China isn't ready to move beyond that treaty and declare Russia's Far East a core Chinese interest. Yet.
/END POST/