Crossing the Tumen River Bridge to the Other Side
Are Russia and North Korea double-crossing China and a river?
China is seemingly exploiting Russia's rake-stepping efforts to seriously worry and anger the West since invading Ukraine on a broad front. Are North Korea and Russia coming together to resist China's power with a road bridge over the Tumen River (traced in blue above) on their short land border?
I really, really want to see what this bridge looks like:
North Korea has said the development of its first road bridge to Russia is a "significant" milestone in relations between the two countries, according to the country's state media KCNA.
Construction of the bridge - set to span the Tumen river in the country's northeast - began on Wednesday. It will be situated near the only other land connection between Russia and North Korea - a Soviet era rail bridge called the 'Friendship Bridge'.
The bridge is set for completion by mid-2026, according to Russia's Kommersant newspaper.
It comes shortly after North Korea confirmed for the first time that it had sent troops to support Russia in its war against Ukraine.
The new bridge is the latest sign of deepening ties between the two heavily-sanctioned countries, which have drawn closer since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The bridge isn’t just a transportation artery, said the North Korean representative:
“This is a big milestone for Russian-Korean relations,” Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin of Russia said when he talked with his North Korean counterpart, Pak Thae-song, through a video link on Wednesday, according to the Russian news agency Tass.
Mr. Pak said that the new bridge would mark “a historic monument” to the efforts by North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to deepen bilateral relations, the North’s official Korean Central News Agency said.
Will the monument be bulky, solid, and unfortunately impassable to seagoing river traffic?
I only ask because the Tumen River on the Russia-North Korea border that flows from China went on my radar back in September:
China is starting to demand territorial concessions from Russia. Easy Chinese access to the Sea of Japan will allow China to put more pressure on Russia's Pacific coast.
As the article I linked to in that post explained:
The 324-mile Tumen River flows from northeast China to North Korea and, toward its end, Russia, ceded to the Russian Empire by China's Qing Dynasty in the 1860s. Chinese vessels must get permission from the two neighbors if they hope to sail past China's Jilin province and down the final 9 miles to reach the Sea of Japan.
I wondered if North Korea—whose permission is needed—would save Russia from stiff-arming its increasingly more powerful big brother. After all, North Korea can't replace China for Russia's defense and economic needs. But Russia could certainly replace China in aiding poverty stricken and small North Korea. North Korea can afford to take that spear, if necessary.
China only wants a North Korea pursuing nukes to worry Japan, South Korea, and America. China has to worry that the North Koreans could aim actual nukes at China. Russia has little worry North Korea will see it as a potential nuclear target, so would be perfectly fine with North Korean nukes threatening American security interests in Asia. Russia uses Belarus in Europe for similar purposes against NATO.
Russia and North Korea are aligning as Russia sends advanced weapons and technology to North Korea in exchange for ammunition, artillery, and cannon fodder infantry. Are they really aligning against China?
In regard to the new strategic partnership most visible with North Korean logistics and troop support for Putin's war on Ukraine, I wrote:
My view is that this is potentially an anti-China alignment. Long considered China's psycho attack dog, North Korea has no love for China. Closer Russian-North Korean ties automatically undermine China's influence over North Korea.
In that piece, I noted that North Korea stated that its goal was no longer to take over South Korea. That is odd, no? On the surface it seems like continued North Korean hostility to South Korea would serve Russia by threatening American interests.
But if a closer strategic partnership is more than just propaganda, and is in the interests of North Korea, too, it would make sense that North Korea would pivot north to block a more serious common foe:
If North Korean troops begin to shift from the DMZ to the Yalu River—which North Korea a decade ago recognized as a vulnerable area—with Kim declaring to his people that his nukes now protect the DMZ, we'll know for sure this is a serious realignment. Because right now with most of North Korea's military deployed to face South Korea, China would have a better shot at bridging the Yalu, driving down the west coast to Pyongyang, and then fanning out to take more.
Will we see North Korea shift troops north and increase fortification on its border with China?
Consider that North Korea hardly needs the Tumen River for access to the Sea of Japan. Nor does Russia, with its long coast on the sea. A coastal region taken from China, if you have forgotten. China has not forgotten:
China's communists take pride in restoring China from their nadir of humiliation at the hands of the Europeans. Western enclaves in China's ports where Western law was supreme and actual formal loss of territory to Europeans like at Macao and Hong Kong added to the pain.
But China has regained control of their coasts, including the former colonies. China has no actual territorial disputes with America or Europe.
That is not the case with Russia, the last European state to control territory seized from China when it was weak. China isn't shy about claiming other land. Why would Russia be the exception?
The design of that bridge North Korea is building will say much about whether it is simply a bridge to allow road traffic back and forth across the Russia-North Korea border. If it is big, sturdy, and barely enough for river flow and small boats to go under, its primary function will be a large cork jammed in Chinese ambitions to easily reach the Sea of Japan.
NOTE: The map was snipped from a Wikipedia map: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tumen_River#/map/0