Ferrari Attacks Are Spectacular!
My pucker factor will spike when Spider's Web becomes a Volkswagen capability
Ukraine's Spider's Web drone attack on multiple Russian bases "safe" deep inside Russia was spectacular. But it was a Ferrari attack. Get back to me when it is a Volkswagen capability.
Well, this observation from early this month is sort of a point:
The Air Force’s top uniformed leader called Ukraine’s drone attacks against Russian air bases this weekend a “wake-up moment” for militaries around the globe, both for defensive and offensive posture.
Ukraine’s special forces used small drones in an elaborately planned strike.
Israel spent years preparing for the operation against Iran’s nuclear and missile programs that was launched early Friday morning, a security official told The Times of Israel, including building a drone base inside Iran and smuggling precision weapons systems and commandos into the country.
Interestingly enough, the Israeli operation apparently included remotely operated Spike non-line-of-sight tactical missiles despite the focus on the small drones used.
But I digress.
Special forces are good at that sort of innovative strikes that exploit identified weakness. If small drones didn't exist, those troops would have found a different means of attacking. The drone strikes worked, but it isn't something that can be done every week.
More important than these spectacular attacks for the attrition needed to break down the enemy is the daily drudge of killing the enemy and knocking out their machines and logistics. Those are rarely celebrated, but in total, they matter.
Those one-offs can even be done on a bigger scale. But Pearl Harbor, the Doolittle Raid, and Taranto weren't routine operations, either. And not surprisingly they weren't the big checkmate move. But they did raise the morale of the attacking nations and shook the enemy. In the case of the Japanese it shook them enough to sail off to the Battle of Midway where their carrier aviation was crushed.
I strongly disagree with this argument flowing from both special forces operations:
From a military standpoint, the increased use of covert operations is significant. I don’t know how much was from operatives on the ground versus signals intelligence. Claims that human intelligence was critical in locating targets for drones or aircraft to hit could simply be intended to cover up vulnerabilities in modern technology, such as how readily your laptop can give away your position. In any event, the nature of war is rapidly evolving, with the prior model of mass warfare increasingly obsolete. [emphasis added]
Has use of covert operations really increased in this era? My view is that the air-centric nature of the Iran-Israel War (and its newness) and the long stalemate of the Winter War of 2022 highlight the special operations. Get a major war of movement on the ground going and the special forces operations will get drowned out by the volume of the large-scale combat operations.
As for their significance, get back to me when any division commander can call that Spider's Web capability up on an hour's notice:
So, could we have artillery shells or air-dropped carrier shells that seed areas around an enemy air base with scores (or hundreds) of small flying drones that would cloud attack an enemy plane as it takes off, flying into engine intakes during vulnerable low-speed assent?
So absolutely be vigilant about security. Enemies find weaknesses and will inflict damage even if it isn't a silver bullet for ultimate victory. But to really get my Pucker Factor redlining, get back to me when this is a capability for attacking aircraft at airfields as I suggested back in 2017 before it was clear to me that the small drones could carry actual lethal payloads.
Still, if it takes the New Big Thing to guard with dull means against a general threat that's always been there, great!
NOTE: I made the image with Bing.