Has Erdogan Decided To Go Fully Rogue?

Or am I fooling myself that this isn't a Turkey problem

Turkey tried some passive-aggressive territorial expansion by telling UNESCO that it claims Greek territory. Time for Plan B in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. But cauterize this NATO wound rather than hacking off the limb.

Does the pen make the sword unnecessary when a document is sent to a UN cultural body?

The UNESCO map was a manifestation of Erdogan’s “Blue Homeland” doctrine, which includes Turkey’s claims to sovereignty over various lands that once belonged to the Ottoman Empire. Erdogan refuses to recognize the Treaty of Lausanne, which ceded the Aegean islands in question now to Greece, despite the fact that the Republic of Turkey duly ratified the treaty on Aug. 23, 1923, as well as the fact that Turkey and Greece are both members of NATO and thus are supposed to be allies.

The Greeks understand this is is serious—but not legally relevant:

Greek officials pointed out that the map had no legal force, but noted that they were “monitoring” Turkey’s actions.

The problem is that with enough pretend sovereignty put in place, Turkey will consider it a license to kill. While Turkey may be content to have influence in former imperial territory farther away, the Greeks—as Turkey defeated indirectly in 1974 on Cyprus—are a neighboring frenemy only technically an ally in NATO.

NATO has no provision for ejecting a member. But it could deny them participation in NATO bodies and cut them off from intelligence sharing. And if Russia or Iran (after they recover from their setbacks) attacks Turkey which then invokes Article V? Well, that won't go well for Turkey.

And we'll see how Greece's efforts to gain allies in the eastern Mediterranean Sea work out.

Yet Turkey is a powerful regional country with control over the Turkish Straits. I'd like it if Turkey wasn't forced to rely on Russia—I'm assuming Russia survives its current war—because Turkey could quietly grant Russia full access to the straits, which would help Russia gain control of the Black Sea. So don't do anything loudly to openly humiliate Erdogan.

I'm hoping our Erdogan problem hasn't become a Turkey problem. Just in case, accelerate Plan B in the eastern Mediterranean Sea—and if they’re still there, get America's nukes out of Incirlik!

NOTE: Map from Adobe Stock images.