I hope the two-year anniversary of the war between Hamas and Israel after the Hamas rape and murder invasion wasn’t the driving force for a “peace” deal the way we tried to beat the two-decade anniversary of the Afghanistan campaign with a deal to end the war (boy, did we). But what if the 20-point peace plan has the seeds of real peace in it after Hamas predictably rejects its own destruction as the basis of peace?
Is it VG (Victory in Gaza) Day in the Middle East after America’s 20-point peace plan was accepted?
Israel and Hamas have agreed to the first phase of a ceasefire and hostage release deal, paving the way for a possible end to the conflict in Gaza.
I suspect that Hamas will not willingly give up power. Even if it does on paper, it will be because it assumes it can intimidate any technocrats who sit at the big desk into doing what Hamas wants. Lovely little government you got there. It would be a shame if something happened to it. Technocrats tend not to be as willing to kill as terrorists. Advantage: terrorists.
And given how so many Western states are essentially backing Hamas, their role in implementing the peace plan will be another avenue for Hamas to exert pressure or exploit misplaced guilt.
I suspect Hamas is just buying time. And it was so desperate that it decided to buy it with its last card:
President Donald Trump on Monday hailed a “new beginning” for the Middle East ahead of his address to the Israeli parliament, as Hamas released all 20 living Israeli hostages from captivity in Gaza.
Well, not its last cards. It still has the bodies of Israelis that Hamas killed.
So Hamas gets time. Time to rebuild armed capacity. Time to kill rivals. Time it needs to live long enough to destroy Israel. But can this plan for peace be sustained?
No peace is possible with the Hamas (and smaller satellite jihadi groups) monsters:
Hamas celebrated the October 7 Massacre as a “glorious day” in a message commemorating the two years since the terror group invaded southern Israel and massacred 1200 Israelis.
Yet there could be a 21st step in Trump’s plan supposedly accepted:
US President Donald Trump’s new plan to end the war in Gaza is essentially an ultimatum to Hamas to release hostages, give up arms and surrender — or face the full force of the Israeli military with Washington’s explicit blessing.
Trump said Israel would have his “full backing to finish the job” if Hamas rejects the offer, and Israeli troops and tanks are now in the heart of Gaza City, from which 800,000 Palestinians have fled.
And two points of the plan are interesting in that light:
16. Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza.
17. In the event Hamas delays or rejects this proposal, the above, including the scaled-up aid operation, will proceed in the terror-free areas handed over from the IDF [NOTE: Israeli Defense Forces] to the ISF [NOTE: the “temporary” International Stabilization Force].
I can absolutely see Hamas balking before Israel pulls back from the Israeli “initial withdrawal” line after hostages are released. What then?
Well, could we see New Palestine and Old Palestine on either side of the Israeli initial withdrawal line rather than the line based on the evacuation area declared early that I suggested early in the war:
By holding the “evacuation area” after the large-scale ground operation ends, Israel could create an option to create a new Gaza in that evacuation area centered on Gaza City--New Palestine--that can be created by Israel, built with Saudi and other Gulf Arab money, and inhabited by Palestinians recruited from rump Gaza in the southwest, the West Bank, and the Arab world.
These Palestinians allowed to enter New Palestine would be screened to keep out terrorists or those with known terrorist sympathies by the Israelis and Arab peace partners who have no love for pro-Iran Hamas and who sign on to the Abraham Accords. And numbers of residents could be kept down until the economy and infrastructure can support more immigrants in more than poverty. Israel and its Arab allies would oversee both the building of New Palestine and the containment of rump Gaza.
I discussed it a bit more, but that’s the foundation for a Plan B to the 20-point plan in case Hamas refuses to go away.
There could be a security zone for Israel established on the Old Palestine side of the initial withdrawal line to keep Hamas away from Gazans interested in building a future.
Further points in the plan on economic aid and no compulsion for Gazans to leave the region (implying the ability to leave willingly) support this.
Could this be the idea behind the plan if Hamas predictably makes it plain it pursues the destruction of Israel from the river to the sea rather than true peace?
Are local Palestinian groups who have clashed with Hamas since the agreement was put in effect potential partners to build a New Palestine if Plan B is needed?
Following a wave of armed clashes between Hamas terrorists and local Palestinian groups, Palestinian sources are reporting a widespread breakdown in security across the Gaza Strip.
Could this New Palestine be the entity that Western governments end up recognizing as a Palestinian state when Islamist murderous hate is marginalized within New Palestine in some future year rather than shamefully empowering Hamas?
Imagine the contrast between a New Palestine and Hamas Palestine given enough time.
America has an interest in making sure Hamas (and their satellite jihadis) goes away for good, in prison or just in exile, because America has a role in this plan:
The United States is sending about 200 troops to Israel to help support and monitor the ceasefire deal in Gaza as part of a team that includes partner nations, nongovernmental organizations and private sector players, U.S. officials said Thursday.
They are support forces. But remember, it isn’t like those American troops will be alone on the ground in the region.
And while I’m speculating, could a New Palestine be a blended territorial/virtual state?
To achieve peace, let’s think outside the physical box of the tiny territory that Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank make up.
I mean, as long as we’re thinking outside the box.
Boy, I really am an optimist at heart.
NOTE: Map from the 20-point plan Tweet.