NATO is vulnerable at the city of Narva on Russia’s border. While its Russophile citizens may not actually be happy with experiencing the loving embrace in practice as Ukrainians have suffered under and rejected, Putin could pretend they do to justify invasion. Ultimately, Narva’s main defense is prying Belarus from Russia’s imperial grasp.
This article discusses the problem Estonia has in fully assimilating its numerous Russian speakers:
Estonia has made significant efforts to redress past injustices by gaining independence. The new generation of Russians must assimilate, but more initiatives are needed. The Kremlin has used the situation to foster a narrative of marginalization, resonating with frustrated Russian Estonians.
Narva, Estonia, on the Russian border, is a particular weak point with its Russian-speaking population:
Narva highlights the contrast in opinion between ethnic Estonians and many of their fellow ethnic Russian citizens. On the banks of the Narva River, the celebrations of Victory Day on May 9th set the stage for one of the more bizarre scenes of 2025. A Russian holiday celebrating the defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945 drew crowds on both sides of the river for the third straight year.
And Putin could seek to exploit that division:
Putin remarked [in 2022] that Narva, Estonia’s third-largest city, was historically Russian and “would need to be ‘taken back’.”
Do read it all.
It would be too much to say those Russian-speaking Estonians like Putin or his form of rule. But the complicated views create a gap wide enough for Putin to exploit if he thinks he can get away with it.
Or if Putin thinks that it is his only option given his military weakness and rapidly shrinking expected lifespan left to restore Russian greatness as Putin defines it.
And he can AstroTurf separatism and pretend there are Estonians pining for Russia’s gentle embrace (tip to OPFOR Journal):
Over the past month, social media accounts have popped up promoting the idea of separating Narva and Ida-Viru County from Estonia and creating a so-called Narva People’s Republic.
“At first glance, the content appears to be a mixture of internet memes, cat pictures, and provocative jokes. A closer look, however, reveals a clear narrative in which Narva is portrayed as a separate political entity and the idea of establishing a so-called Narva People’s Republic is promoted,” Propastop, which is run by Defense League members, says.
I’ve worried about this point of vulnerability:
I think Narva, Estonia could be in Putin’s crosshairs even as he struggles to defeat Ukraine in the Winter War of 2022. NATO must prepare to prevail in any Russian attack that seeks to deniably capture the city with conventionally organized and equipped “little green men” to break NATO’s Article V defense guarantee. The United States Army needs to be the key building block to organize a victory over that gambit.
This would be a high end form of Russian subliminal aggression often called “hybrid war”, but which is essentially Russia denying they are attacking and the West pretending that is true.
In Army magazine I discussed the vulnerability and steps the Army could take to prepare for such a “little green men” invasion patterned on Pakistan’s invasion of Indian territory that prompted the narrow limited Kargil War in 1999.
At home, as the initial article states, Estonia needs to bring its residents fond of Russia into society through assimilation to close that gap that Russia could exploit.1 I would think at least subtly reminding people of how Putin “rescues” ethnic Russians or Russian speakers in Ukraine could do a world of good.'
This proposed Russian law is worrisome:
A government commission on legislative activity has approved draft amendments that would broaden President Vladimir Putin’s authority to use Russian armed forces outside the country.
According to the proposed changes, Putin would be able to deploy troops extraterritorially to protect Russian citizens if they are arrested, detained, or prosecuted abroad.
Not that Russia requires such a law to falsely claim it is rescuing Russians, ethnic Russians, or even Russian speakers. But it would help if Russian “hybrid war” agents are arrested for their sabotage or AstroTurf resistanc campaign in Estonia.
Worries about Russia launching an invasion of NATO Europe in the next decade are likely overblown given the weakness Russia has displayed by failing to take much of Ukraine—let alone conquer it—after four years of full-scale war. And given that European NATO states are rearming in alarm.
And even in a decade, the Russian invasion threat will be limited to the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Those are small NATO states made more vulnerable by Russia’s nearly completed Anschluss with Belarus which could be a launching point for a “take and talk” invasion that takes ground—perhaps across the Suwalki Gap to link up with Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave. If well timed, Russia could advance across the gap and then dig in, daring NATO to counter-attack, and call for negotiations to end the conflict.
Russia would wave around its nukes to try to bully Europeans into accepting the limited loss. And if the Europeans do that, NATO will be exposed as having a hollow Article V defense guarantee.
Russian control Belarus is key. Without Belarus, Kaliningrad is not a threat as much as it would be the largest-self-sustaining NATO prison camp in Europe during a war with Russia. It would be the first target in a war for NATO to capture. Or if capture of Russian territory is considered too risky nuclear escalation-wise, scraped clean and neutralized.
Russia is already using Belarus territory for military operations:
Russia has been using Belarusian infrastructure to support Russian drone operations against Ukraine and incursions into NATO airspace.
Imagine a couple combined arm armies equipped and trained for mechanized advances rather than the attritional model they have devolved into, instead. Russia did use Belarus territory for their failed ground and airborne assault on Kyiv in the opening weeks of the 2022 invasion. You wonder why Poland arms up?
Without Belarus under Russian control, a Russian attack limited to Estonia, even just at vulnerable Narva, could be met with a firm NATO response after mobilizing and moving forces north through the secured Suwalki Gap.
I certainly hope Western efforts are being directed to encourage Belarusians who reject Russian domination and prefer integration with the West to push Lukashenko out and eject the Russians. Or at least get Lukashenko (or his successor) reason to reject Russia as much as he rejects the West.
NOTE: The illustration is from the article.
Not that a Russian government couldn’t simply lie and pretend there are lots of Estonians pining for the Kremlin spires.