Russia has a proto-alliance that would be valuable if fleshed out should Russia try to escape China’s grip and China’s threat to Russian influence and to Russian territorial integrity in the Far East where Russia holds on to the biggest insult from the Century of Humiliation that China seems to fixate on.
This isn’t just clever politics. This is a form of appeasement.
Which, as it was before World War II, a reasonable reaction to a stronger power that has gotten a bad name from World War II as a means to delude yourself into thinking you’ve stopped an aggressor with pieces of paper.
As I’ve written, appeasement properly done can make sense if it allows you to avoid war with a stronger power and then use that time to build up your strength to reverse that imbalance.
In many ways, that is what Russia is doing. They have been appeasing China until they can rebuild their strength. One sign of their rebuilding is their massive slow down in weapons sales to China that allowed China to steal military technology from Russia.
But appeasing a stronger power is humiliating. Especially for a former superpower suddenly turned into a near-Third World, alcohol-addled country losing population every day.
So what are you to do when you must appease China?
Pretend the real threat is something that is actually no threat at all—NATO and behind that alliance, America.
Poke at us and what are we going to do? Invade Russia? Hah! European NATO countries struggled to put a division’s worth of real troops in Afghanistan.
I think Russian hostility to a disarmed and disinterested NATO was initially a way to conceal that appeasement, but the hostility has taken a life of its own. Fake it ‘til you make it, I suppose.
Add in Russia’s need to protect its former territory in Central Asia from China’s influence.
Before Russia invaded Ukraine, Russia secured its eastern front with an extension of that appeasing pact noted initially. I suspected Russia believed that rapidly occupying Ukraine with his shiny new armed forces while humiliating NATO for its inability to prevent that would set the stage for Russia pivoting to its Far East and throwing off the shackles of vassalage. But I believed that was beyond his military’s capabilities. So I grasped for something that could make sense:
It’s been puzzling to me that Russia is seemingly refusing to address the threat in the east by failing to repair relations with the West to make Europe a safe area for the real front in the Far East. Provoking NATO hostility is madness in this light.
Could Russia be willing to buy more time to blunt threats from China by turning Ukraine into a desert for a generation or two, thus preventing it from being a threat? Or even being a jumping off point for NATO to be a threat from its territory? While scaring Europeans reliant on Russian energy with a display of brutality?
But that extension expires next year. And Russia has wrecked its armed forces that Putin no longer believes is shiny. My question is whether the non-aggression pact is extended again. Will Putin bow more deeply to get it? Does China even want an extension at this point?
The latest news is Russia’s longtime friend Vietnam:
Russia is a key supplier of military goods to Vietnam, providing it with fighter jets, tanks and ships. Moscow’s ongoing war against Ukraine, however, has given rise to international sanctions and the United States, European Union and others are [threatening] more unless Russia relents.
Internal Vietnamese documents obtained by The Associated Press reveal that Hanoi and Moscow have prepared for this possibility, establishing a complex system through which Vietnam can conceal its payments to Russia for defense goods by avoiding any open transfers of cash through the global banking system.
Add in interesting Russian-North Korean moves separate from the high-profile North Korean troop contribution that could thwart Chinese territorial ambitions.
And unless there is a sudden break with Russia either from Lukashenko exploiting Russia’s bloody “distraction” in Ukraine or from a popular uprising of people unwilling to be yoked to Russia’s burning wagon, Russia’s growing Anschluss with Belarus will keep that state in the alliance.
The Russian defense relationship with India is the the key to the alliance:
India is an enemy of China. China is trying to use its new power to bully India.
The Russian-Chinese “alliance” is abnormal and a danger if it continues to turn Russia into China’s vassal state. It is good to get the Chinese angry with Russian ties to India, whether with Russian arms sales or energy deals, as I wrote recently:
Plan B: “Russian President Vladimir Putin lauded India as ‘a great power’ on Monday as he arrived in New Delhi to bolster military and energy ties with a traditional ally being courted by Washington.” Russia needs to keep India friendly for the time Russia needs to pivot to confront China. Also, it would be sheer idiocy for America to sanction India for buying Russian weapons that will face China. Never underestimate the damage Smart Diplomacy® can inflict.
It is good to strengthen India to face China. China threatens America and India, and we don’t want India losing to China or being pressured into submission.
And it is good to strain Russian-Chinese ties by having Russia strengthen India, as Russia is doing:
India adds heft and some diplomatic cover to counter Russia’s awful record of aggression against Ukraine, perhaps making it easier for smaller states to join it
Could Indonesia be a part of the future alliance? Mongolia?
And how much of Central Asia would be willing to throw in their lot with Russia to keep China out? I’ll only assume Kazakhstan given its importance to Russia and considering that Russia intervened there on the eve of invading Ukraine. But others might join in later if there is safety in numbers.
I’ll rule out Iran given Russia’s failure to help Iran in the 2025 Twelve-Day War against Israel and America. But over time if China is equally unhelpful, perhaps Iran could be back in play.
This kind of alliance is vital for Russia given how much it has alienated Europe since it invaded Ukraine on a large scale in February 2022. America, in China’s line of fire, is more likely to consider Russia the enemy of its China enemy, and therefore a (trust but verify) friend. But Russia can hardly count on that given the damage Russia has done to relations with the West. Constant threats of nuclear annihilation will do that.
Russia’s extension of its non-aggression pact with China is about to expire unless the agreement is renewed as it was in 2021 for five years. How fast can Russia build its counter-weight to Chinese dominance while refusing to make peace with NATO?
What if the war Xi told the PLA to be ready for by 2027 is a land war against Russia?
Heck, I don’t even rule out that Putin received a big enough crack across the skull with the clue bat that he will make peace with NATO and allow Ukraine to be free of threats in order to make European Russia a secure rear area for Russia’s main fronts in the Far East and Central Asia that are under threat by China.
Well, if not Putin, his replacement might see the need to pivot to face China.
NOTE: I made the map with mapchart.net
The Middle Kingdom is arrogant and insular. A bit of obeisance, a bit of tribute, and they lose interest.
Water, from Lake Baikal, is Russia's trump card.