Supply and Demand in Warfare

Mercenaries could become a commodity

We joke about Skynet becoming self aware with advances in artificial intelligence Will AI pull together the pieces of private warfare for hire that exist across the planet? When private entities are going into space at a faster pace than state or multi-national efforts, small military operations—because large-scale conventional combat operations rarely turn a profit for long—could be a product for those with the money.

Private military companies (PMCs) thrive:

Mercenaries have existed since ancient times but have evolved into modern private military and security companies (PMSCs) focusing on training, logistics, and protection, especially in Western practices. ...

Russian PMCs are designed for complex military missions and are fully state-dependent but operate illegally in Russia. ...

China’s PSCs support the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative, focusing on protecting assets and infrastructure in unstable areas but lack the skills, combat experience, and autonomy for complex security missions.

Also, Artificial Intelligence (AI) goes to war:

During the last decade the American military has been using software incorporating radical new technology for mission planning. That includes selecting targets for air strikes.

This capability will get into the wild, if it isn't already there. Has anybody tried using public AI to establish a target list with the sequence and munition choice? Would that be good enough for those who aren't trying to follow the rules of war to minimize civilian casualties?

Nearly two decades ago when discussing the rise (again) of mercenary forces, I speculated about whether technology would allow private entities or individuals to employ military force:

After reading Thomson's book and really thinking about how recently we ended pirate kingdoms, privateering, armed companies, private mercenary units, and cross-border recruiting of troops and officers on a large scale, the idea of revived private warfare by the West despite our laws and international system seems far more likely to me than it did when I speculated on that possible future. (And I looked to recruiting globally, too.)

There are glimmers of the organization to sustain such a privatized military power and the demand for these services (and here's one that is free).

The links in that last paragraph above go to posts about the beginnings of a backbone of a system to buy a bespoke war. In the Glimmers link I wrote about how the private market for hacking tools could become a private market for kinetic war in the real world:

Strategypage writes of one online service already out there connecting cybercrooks with customers … Can the sale of direct action be far behind? The elements of Western private warfare are being developed as we speak, and the Westphalian system gets weaker every day.

The Sustain link:

Whatever your war needs, there are people out there who can provide the service. More bang for the buck, to turn a phrase. And warBay will be there.

The longer this Long War drags on without the West winning, the more likely that private entities will wage war and the more likely some form of supporting infrastructure will arise to use the surplus fighting talent out there.

So some time in the future, potential warmakers will turn on their computers to hear the soft voice say, "Hello. You've got war." The ability to right click to destroy won't be our military's sole domain forever.

I think warBay isn't as ridiculous as it sounds. Not nearly as ridiculous as the idea that you could make money by letting people sell that dreck in their basement for money.

The Demand link:

There are people with shopping lists for war that their own governments won't wage for them. This need will be met by somebody who will pull together the components of a coup that the Laos plot group put together.

And finally, the free service to meet demand:

Now non-state actors have access to information that only rich countries had. And the article highlights that even our troops find this publicly available tool more useful than our government's "better" satellite imagery that never seems to make it through the distribution system to our troops.

High quality pictures that don't get to the troops until they are writing their memoirs aren't really better than lower resolution pictures you can get on the Internet before you go out on patrol.

So even private individuals have better satellite recon capability than the governments of the world.

That was Google Earth! Remember that? And of course, with SpaceX, Starlink, and Starshield, much more than that early product is available.

Those with the money could conceivably purchase a package of offensive options from a menu, from information operations and cyber-war to drone strikes and infantry ground combat operations, complete with the satellite surveillance and communications capabilities needed.

How long before countries designate even heavy forces as available for lease by even private entities? Maybe international law will evolve so that flags of convenience will apply not just to merchant ships actually owned by other countries but to leased military units that register in those “flagging” countries for a fee. But the units would be controlled by the entity that paid for the unit.

Already, countries lease their troops for UN peacekeeping operations. North Korea sold troops to Russia to wage war on Ukraine. Heck, America pretty much turned a profit in the Persian Gulf War after adding up the financial help from countries that sent money instead of troops. Countries could invert our priority of paying for the 1991 war in our interests to waging (a bit of) war for profit.

And one more thing. When the Winter War of 2022 ends, many veterans on both sides will scratch the itch of combat addiction by working for such PMCs. That's one effect of big, long wars. And as that initial article addresses, that can be a problem:

Russia’s PMC industry is likely to persist despite its setbacks but the growing influence of PMCs and paramilitary groups could destabilize Russia internally, especially in a post-war scenario.

I speculated exactly about that scenario even before the Wagner Revolt:

Is Russia restoring a centuries-old practice long discarded of private military power existing outside of state control? Will this end up destroying the rump Russian empire that Putin has wanted to expand?

The Time of Troubles 2.0 could be Russia's "peace dividend." As I further speculated, "The defeat of Prigozhin's Wagner revolt wasn't the end of Russia's mercenary problem. It was the beginning."

Putin wants to restore the Russian Empire. He may end up breaking it one more time.

NOTE: I made the image with the Substack capability.