The Arab Fall Begins in Syria
There will be another spring, and it needs the West's help
One benefit of the wrongly discredited Arab Spring is that it opened the debate on what forms of government are possible for Islamic-majority countries. History has said you can either have mullah-run governments or monarchies (or other forms of autocracies with either suits or military dress) that try to manipulate Islam to remain in power.
The fall of the suit-clad secular dictatorship of Assad—as brutal as it was—to HTS-led Islamists of various flavors is a setback for moving beyond the traditional forms of government in Arab countries with Islamic majorities. I know there are hopes in the West that this time for sure, Islamists 2.0 in the form of HTS won't be a threat that sustains a global jihad. It's essentially "Islamism in one country" rather than "international Islamism", eh?
But I suspect that this is just a manipulation of Islam to survive. Even if some or even most in HTS are sincere in their claims to want only to rule Syria in a kinder and gentler form of Islam, others are not sincere and will blow with the wind. And still others aren't even willing to pretend to be sincere. They will be the killing wind from the 7th century deserts. How does that struggle work out?
The manipulation of Islam traditionally took the form of establishing "tame" Islamic leaders who backed the autocrat and/or painting non-tame opposition leaders as too radical to deal with. The autocrat's inability to solve problems would increase the legitimacy of opposition voices. And the two ploys would push the opposition to embrace radicalism while pulling "tame" Islamic leaders toward extremism to maintain viability with a public increasingly angry at the autocrat's government.
The effort largely failed, in part because democracy is not just the tyranny of a narrow majority voting to be the collective tyrant. "Democracy" is a shorthand for voting and rule of law. Rule of law is a factor that even Westerners seem to forget is a foundation of our self-governance. It is no shock that autocracies of a god or guns failed to produce appreciation for rule of law. I still believe the Arab Spring planted seeds for change:
I have believed that democracy with rule of law can end the appeal and generation of jihadi Islamism. Does the [Arab] desire for justice above all else mean I'm wrong?
The Arab Spring of a decade ago almost totally failed. But it at least showed a lot of Arab people wanted to try democracy instead of the usual choices of autocracy or religious dictatorships for their governments.
And I did recognize that rule of law was important for democracy to mean more than a one-time vote for dictatorship by the majority. Whether I used the term "constitution," "accountability," or "rule of law" that I usually use, it's all the same thing.
Justice is best guaranteed by rule of law. Which is also a component of functioning democracy. So it is possible for the West to support rule of law in the formal system of even an imperfect democracy. After all, Iran has the forms of democracy with votes and a parliament--just not rule of law. Rule of law is more important in the long run than voting. So don't give up on democracy in the Arab world[.]
Despite my long-run confidence, the Arab Spring has failed thus far. And jihadis still dream of killing us in wholesale lots and pray for the chance to do so. Until the Islamic world sorts out its civil war about whether fanatics or normal people define Islam, the West needs to kill jihadis both to protect itself from being collateral damage in that civil war, and to support the less ruthless normal Islamic people battling the murderous fanatics.
But societal change takes time at the speed of history and not modern news cycles—or even seasons. Spring will come. But prepare for the fall and perhaps winter can be prevented.
I really am an optimist, all things considered.