The Long March to Guam

Bureaucracy is not easily overcome

The Marines island-hopped across the Pacific against fierce opposition in 3-1/2 years. Moving from friendly Okinawa to friendly Guam? At least 18 years. And counting.

The long march of III Marine Expeditionary Force from Okinawa to Guam is beginning:

The partial transfer of U.S. Marines from Okinawa to Guam began on Saturday, 12 years after Japan and the United States agreed on their realignment to reduce the heavy burden of American troop presence on the southern Japanese island, officials said. ...

Under the plan agreed between Tokyo and Washington in April 2012, about 9,000 of the 19,000 Marines currently stationed on Okinawa are to be moved out of Okinawa, including about 4,000 of them to be moved to Guam in phases. Details, including the size and timing of the next transfer, were not immediately released.

Only 12 years to start? Dream on. I wrote about this move in 2018 and recounted the first identified TDR post in 2006:

It is amazing how long this is taking, given that I wrote about the plans so long ago, designed to spread the Marines out to make them less vulnerable and to lessen friction on Okinawa where the Marine presence has long been an irritant to the local residents.

April 2006, about negotiations between America and Japan on relocating Marines from Okinawa.

May 2006, about a press conference on the plan.

June 2006, about defense in depth in the Pacific.

January 2009, about the potential of Guam to be a staging base to deploy power west.

April 2012, about spreading the Marines out.

December 2013, about providing alternate runways for Guam assets given growing Chinese missile threats.

April 2014, about reducing the Guam deployment in favor of Australia and Hawaii.

December 2015, about how Guam can be struck by Chinese forces.

America started this project in reaction to China's growing threat to bases on Okinawa.

Yet this move to Guam is taking so long that by the time Marines are deployed on Guam in strength, China's extending reach will threaten Marines on Guam:

The [DF-26] missile is believed to have a range of up to 4,000 kilometers (2,500 miles), leaving vulnerable the crucial U.S. military installations on the island of Guam, along with other bases in the region.

And Lord knows, I addressed the Guam Anabasis between 2018 and now.

Well given the growth of Chinese threats noted nine years ago, at least missile defense is part of Fortress Guam. Perhaps that will be ready by the time the Marines from Okinawa arrive. I kid, I kid. Duck and cover, lads. Duck and cover.

Marines defeated imperial Japanese troops more quickly than American bureaucrats could be pushed off of their defensive redoubts of paperwork. To be fair, I'm sure modern Japanese bureaucrats were involved, too.

NOTE: I made the image with the Substack capability.