Are Russians waking up to Putin's folly of waging war on a non-enemy (or at least a secondary enemy so as not to give them too much credit for total lucidity) while ignoring the real enemy that threatens Russia?
It is possible that the numerous whacks with the clue bat by attacking Ukraine and provoking NATO help and general rearmament are finally having an effect. Are some Russians more invested in Russia's survival and less invested in Putin's survival remembering that China is the main threat to Russia?
On June 10, the New York Times published a front-page article detailing how the Russian security and intelligence elite are getting extremely uneasy about President Putin’s growing “no-limits” partnership with China.
The full-page Times article, which is based on a leaked document from the top Russian counterintelligence agency, the FSB, goes into great detail about how China has created a widespread spying network in Russia and is extensively recruiting Russian scientists to report back to their Chinese handlers. The FSB, Russia’s “spooks,” refers to China as “the enemy.”
In 2014 I wrote that Russia manufactured the specter of a NATO threat despite NATO's rapid and thorough disarmament after the Cold War:
Putin seems insanely paranoid about the West and NATO. Perhaps it is very rational for him to pretend NATO is a threat to hide the groveling to China. …
NATO isn't going to make Russia pay much a price for treating us as an enemy. And the lack of threat can be put down to the vigilance of Russia in holding back the next Hitler or Napoleon who dreams of sweeping all the way to Moscow and owning that Jewel of the Steppe.
The problem for Russia is that by the time they feel secure enough to recognize that China is the real threat to Mother Russia, NATO and the West will be so disgusted with Russia that Moscow won't be able to even hope for our help should China decide that Russia's Far East is really a Core Interest of China that should return to the loving embrace of the Han Empire.
In time, the Russians believed their own bullshit. And with serial aggression against neighbors, hostile rhetoric, and frequent nuclear threats, added fear to the disgust. Putin finally unified NATO which agreed to substantial rearmament efforts.
Bravo.
Rather than trying to bribe a hostile Russia that simply thinks the West can offer it more advantage than China at the moment, the West must try to undermine the Russian rulers who accept vassalage under China in order to confront a non-existent NATO military threat (back to the first article):
But what should the United States and our EU/NATO partners do to undercut the Moscow/Beijing Axis? How can our legislative and executive leaders pry these two despotic powers apart and significantly weaken their ill-conceived liaison?
A critical Western goal to undermine Putin’s brutal dictatorship must be to chip away at its legitimacy at home. Emphasizing Moscow’s almost servile relationship with China, the United States, and the EU should play on the fear of both average Russians and the Russian elites.
We should strive to instill a sense of fear that Russia, the junior partner, is slowly being absorbed into a distant and foreign civilization and economy: China.
We should relentlessly accuse the Putin-led kleptocracy of selling out Russia’s culture and heritage, its soul, to its eventual Chinese masters.
This is something I've tried to support for a couple decades now as I proposed promoting friction between the rising China empire and the fragile Russian empire. Do that and mutual worry about China could provide the basis for America-Russia cooperation.
The friendship "without limits" between Russia and China is clearly one where there are few limits on what China can demand.
To me, the contrast between China's strategy and Russia's strategery is stark:
As Russia destroys its military and economy by invading Ukraine trying to rebuild Soviet glory, China may figure it has an opportunity to weaken Russia which is the last major power still holding gains from China's "century of humiliation."
What will those Russians who are alarmed about tightly focusing on Ukraine and the purported NATO threat behind it do about Putin while China gains strength and opportunities to pounce on a Russia too distracted and weakened to do anything but use nukes to defend its territorial integrity?
If their nukes work, of course.
Or will Putin finally save himself by seizing the opportunity to end the war in Ukraine, make up with NATO and Ukraine, turn European Russia into a safe rear area, and pivot to face China to protect Russia's Far East taken from China in the 19th century and protect its former Central Asian republics from Chinese domination?
Putin won't get a better chance to pull this off:
If Putin needs a settlement because of all this, Trump--who is willing to put business before pleasure when it comes to coping with Russia's current bout of aggression (seemingly more of a dead cat bounce than a true revival)--is Putin's best hope. Trump doesn't want Russia to win the war. But he is willing to provide an economic safety net to make it possible to end the war. While I think the threat of escalation to nuclear war is grossly over-stated, shit happens. All things being equal I'd like to end that small threat.
Trump is temperamentally willing to flip rather than unduly punish Russia if only the Russians will pull their head out of their Putin and recognize the real threat to Russia—China.
Will Russians enter a period of lucidity before they enter a Time of Troubles 2.0 as Russia fractures under the pressure of a war it is not noticeably winning?
NOTE: I made the meme with imgflip.com