The Vacuum in the Horn of Africa Gets Filled
The Vacuum in the Horn of Africa Gets Filled
Does war break out to determine exactly who fills the vacuum?
Image from BBC article below.
America has failed to protect sea lanes in the Horn of Africa. America didn’t even want Saudi Arabia to battle the Houthi threat to the sea lanes and region in general. Other powers wish to fill or exploit the vacuum.
The United States and its allies suppressed the chaos-born pirate threat in the Horn region after much effort—and a refusal to really discourage pirates with immediate death. The threat to the Horn is now from Iran’s proxy the Houthi which controls much of northwest Yemen, which was once North Yemen. Iran created the ability to interfere with Gulf Arab oil exports, a long-held goal of mullah-run Iran.
A military alliance between Somalia and Egypt is ruffling feathers in the fragile Horn of Africa, upsetting Ethiopia in particular - and there are worries the fallout could become more than a war of words. …
The plan is for up to 5,000 Egyptian soldiers to join a new-look African Union force at the end of the year, with another 5,000 reportedly to be deployed separately.
Ethiopia, which has been a key ally of Somalia in its fight against al-Qaeda-linked militants and is at loggerheads with Egypt over a mega dam it built on the River Nile, said it could not “stand idle while other actors take measures to destabilise the region”.
I don’t recall hearing about the August military alliance that put the plan into place.
I mentioned Ethiopia's desire:
Abiy has more territorial ambitions: "Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed claimed on October 13, 2023, that his landlocked country has a right to demand maritime access to a Red Sea port from its neighbors in the Horn of Africa — first through diplomatic means, he said, or by force if necessary."
I was skeptical that force would be effective. Yet Ethiopia did say it wanted diplomacy to achieve it. Somaliland was the diplomatic partner.
Did not see this path coming. Should have. Somalia is not a country but a territory--so I have no problem with a deal between to governments that can control and run their territories. People spend so much time complaining about Africa's borders drawn by colonialists. But when Africans draw borders reflecting reality they get condemned. Here's the source of the map and a quick brief on Somaliland.
Somaliland gets paid (by getting a stake in Ethiopia's airline--the largest in Africa--in the 50-year agreement) and backing for independence from Somalia and, I assume as a byproduct, for favorably settling territorial disputes with fellow secessionist region, Puntland. Still, the details of the deal aren't public.
As I noted, too, Ethiopia might have an instant-navy option with a base in Somaliland.
Egypt and Sudan are concerned that Ethiopia is getting a grip on the Nile River water flow that Egypt especially must have to live. Talks on limiting the speed of filling the GERD project and limits on holding back water in droughts are going nowhere.
So Somalia seeks allies to squash Puntland’s push for recognition as an independent state. And Somalia would obviously like to preempt Puntland’s similar desire.
Then we can toss in the United Arab Emirates takeover of Socotra Island that is interesting given the new apparent scramble for the Horn region:
The United Arab Emirates is leading an effort to de facto take over Yemen's Socotra Island territory in order to watch over the narrow southern strait to the Red Sea. Is this for fighting or watching?
Oh, and in a blast from the caliphate past we have Turkey’s play for past imperial glories with its deal with Somalia (quoting ISW):
Turkey will deploy an unspecified number of naval forces to Somalia to help the Somali Federal Government (SFG) protect its territorial waters and build the Somali forces’ capacity to counter terrorism, piracy, smuggling, and other threats. The deployment is part of a defense and economic deal that Turkey signed with Somalia in February 2024 to reconstruct, equip, and train the Somali Navy in exchange for 30 percent of the revenue from resources found in Somalia’s offshore exclusive economic zone.
Turkey is looking to extend its influence south through the Red Sea:
What is Turkey doing building a naval base in Sudan by leasing Suakin Island? Is it all an appeal to China?
A base in Sudan gives Turkey the option to either protect or interfere with Red Sea shipping lanes; and as a staging base to reach their bases in Somalia and Qatar (noted in the 10th paragraph).
Egypt and Saudi Arabia oppose the Turkish base (from the first Strategypage link). Since the Saudis already bankrolled Egypt's purchase of two French Mistral helicopter carriers that France denied Russia in the wake of Russia's invasion of Crimea, those two probably figure they have the Arab forces needed for any operation in the Red Sea and don't need the Turks mucking around there.
A mobile base that Turkey will equip will be able to move between these bases to support them and project power beyond them to extend Turkish influence.
America sits in Djibouti watching the region—and watching the Chinese who also sit in Djibouti watching the region. America remains in Somalia to hunt jihadis. Which helps our major non-NATO ally Kenya which feels the collateral damage of jihadis in Somalia. But otherwise we’ve seemingly pulled back from the Horn.
So that’s Ethiopia, America, China, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, “Somalia”, Puntland, jihadis—and whatever random mayhem the Russians can introduce—churning the waters of the Horn region. While India has interests there, too, from not so far away; and Eritrea starts to feel a little alone and in need of a protective patron.
We’ll see if the eventual conclusion of the Iran-orchestrated war on Israel allows America to recommit its scarce Navy assets to the region to prevent competing interests from igniting the region.