Ukraine’s attack into Kursk province (oblast) has been a success on a couple levels.
One, Ukraine achieved operational surprise because while the Russians saw Ukrainian preparations, the Russians didn’t see it as a major threat. I’m assuming that on the tactical level the Russians across the front had some awareness because they seem to have reported activity that higher headquarters told them not to worry their pretty little heads over.
Two, Ukraine has demonstrated some combined arms prowess at the company and perhaps battalion level. This attack seems to be a single brigade reinforced with elements of several other brigades, so I can’t say we are seeing a brigade-level combined arms attack. But that’s just my impression. And Ukraine isn’t really saying.
We can certainly say that Ukraine’s attack validates my reasons for urging Ukraine to seize the initiative back in September 2022. I said Ukraine would gain advantages on the offensive:
--One, you can choose enemy weak points to attack. Which is what Ukraine did on the Kharkov front.
--Two, having the initiative allows you to more easily take advantage of enemy mistakes. And it makes it more difficult for the enemy to take advantage of your mistakes. If you get the enemy running, of course. Otherwise a competent enemy will be able to counter-punch after blunting attacks. Which is what Ukraine is doing now with its counteroffensive after enduring and bleeding the Russian attackers.
--Three, the Russians don't appear to have either enough troops, good enough troops, good enough troop morale, good enough commanders, or good enough command and control to be good counter-punchers.
And finally, if Ukraine doesn't take advantage of Russia's culmination and seize the initiative, Russian weaknesses can't be exploited. Too few crappy troops with poor morale, commanders, command and control, and logistics can sit in their defenses pretty much forever if nobody attacks them.
And in February 2024 I renewed my worry about the advantages to Russia of maintaining the initiative:
Recall that in World War II, Russia was able to get large advantages in men and materiel on their offensive fronts in large measure because after Kursk, Germany was too weak to go on the offensive even on limited sections of the front. This allowed Russia to thin out their troops on non-offensive sector parts of the front to get big superiority at the point of attack. And the Germans were unable to exploit the thinner Russian forces elsewhere--even if Germany had been aware of the vulnerabilities.
That World War II German inability to seize the initiative was a tremendous safety net for the USSR (controlled by the Russians) which knew it could take those risks in order to keep hitting the Germans.
This year, Russia had weak defenses on the Kursk sector. And for a long time it didn’t matter because those weak forces weren’t tested.
This month, Ukraine tested those weak troops by hitting the weak point, exposing it as weak, and exploiting the victory over those weak troops. And so far Russia isn’t showing it can counter-punch in reaction to Ukraine’s attack.
How long can Ukraine maintain the initiative here? Does it have the strength to exploit the initial victory more? Does it have the ability to hit another weak spot inside Ukraine?
Or will Russia get its act together and grind forward to eventually push the Ukrainians back in Kursk?
NOTE: I used the Substack image generating feature. I could probably have added text in the system? Next time.