Will Russia Reconstitute Its Strategic Myopia?
Reconstituting Russia's military will be the easy part
Russia rebuilt its hollowed out Soviet military after the mini-debacle of the 2008 Goons of August War against Georgia. That military was not as good as Putin thought when he sent it into Ukraine to die. The Russian military shattered in this major debacle that at more than three years and is still going will require another rebuild. More important is the need to rebuild Russia's strategic priorities.
Russia will have to rebuild their military without much money to spare:
Russia seeks to learn from the failures of its 2021 armed forces as it creates an improved 2030 military. Russian ground, air and naval forces all proved to be flawed in Ukraine. The army lost over a million men to casualties, desertion and military age men fleeing the country. For a nation of 142 million, the losses in Ukraine had a significant impact on the economy. The war-related sanctions did noticeable damage to the economy. The combat losses contributed to a labor shortage. The cost of the war depleted the national cash reserve and the government budget for several years.
Because of this rebuilding the military will have to be done with a low budget. That means returning to a million man version of the simpler but massive Soviet Union’s Red Army. This force had two million troops and more divisions than the United States and Europe combined.
I had thoughts on this issue. The ground forces are the most important elements, and the army is the bulk of Russia's ground combat forces. Before the war it was much smaller than the United States Army, with just 280,000 on paper. That's not enough even for fighting Ukraine:
The country with the largest land border needs ground troops. I'd increase this to 420,000.
I'd abandon the over-hyped Battalion Tactical Group and focus on divisions and brigades. I'd also restore the old Soviet practice of having Category I, II, and III units. Category I are ready to go to war, with at least most of their men in place. Category II are half-strength needing mobilized troops to fill out. Category III are cadre-level forces with older equipment that requires mobilized troops to staff under active leadership.
Category I would mostly be in the Far East with some around Moscow and St. Petersburg just in case, plus some in the Caucasus.
Category II would be mostly in the Far East with some in the Caucasus and along Russia's western border, from the Kola Peninsula to Ukraine.
Category III would be in western and central Russia close to where most of Russia's population is in order to absorb reservists and conscripts.
I go into the other ground forces—including the vital airborne forces—and other services, too.
But more important is what Russia rebuilds its military to achieve. In that post on reconstituting Russia's military, I began with the strategic context for reconstitution:
Before invading Ukraine, Russia seemed like it could support a military of 750,000 despite a paper strength of 900,000 troops. I'll use that paper number as the base figure to start from, assuming it represents the weight of value. There are also 554,000 paramilitary troops.
Strategic Environment.
I will assume that the Russians need their best combat units in the Far East where China has massive dormant land claims on Russia. In Europe, NATO is not a threat but there are smaller military and security threats present.
The border with Central Asia needs forces to assist former republics resist Chinese influence.
Russia needs sufficient forces in the Caucasus where Islamist tendencies are always simmering. And Russia needs to protect the territory it took from Georgia.
Russia will also need forces along its smaller Black Sea coast, in part to watch Turkey.
Moscow should contain the heavy strategic reserve while some good units defend St. Petersburg.
Decent forces need to be deployed along the western border and in the Northern Fleet area.
Yes, yes, Sweden, France, and Germany (twice) invaded Russia/USSR from the west. But all those invasions failed and which of those looks like it could rev up for another round? Sure, it's possible. But unlikely. And Russia/USSR defeated all of those invasion attempts from the west. In addition, those flat plains that have been an invasion corridor are now filled with urban areas large and small that provide ready-made fortresses to slow an invader. Back in the Cold War, I read that West Germany was a filled with villages that created a ready-made net of anti-tank outposts to slow the Soviets down. Ask the Russians how slogging through Donbas cities and towns in that flat terrain worked out in this war.
The east is the real danger for Russia. The Mongols rode across Asia, through the Ural Mountains, and conquered Russia in the 13th century on its way to invading Europe:
Moscow drew people and wealth, developed trade links, and established an autocratic political system which exerted a powerful influence on Russian society. After the prince of Tver led an uprising in 1327, the rival prince Ivan I of Moscow joined the Mongols in crushing Tver and devastating its lands. By doing so, he eliminated his rival, allowed the Russian Orthodox Church to move its headquarters to Moscow, and was granted the title of Grand Prince by the Mongols.
As such, the Muscovite prince became the chief intermediary between the Mongol overlords and the Russian princes, which paid further dividends for Moscow's rulers. In the 14th century, the Muscovite princes began "gathering Russian lands" to increase its population and wealth. While the Mongols often raided other territories, they tended to respect the lands controlled by their principal collaborator. This, in turn, attracted nobles and their servants who sought to settle in the relatively secure and peaceful lands of Moscow. Although a Russian army defeated the Golden Horde at the Battle of Kulikovo in 1380, the Mongol domination of Russian-inhabited territories, with the requisite demands of tribute, continued until the Great Stand on the Ugra River in 1480.
The Mongols remained in control of Russia for centuries.
The Mongols are gone. Nobody says they might rouse themselves for a repeat the way Westerners are held suspiciously. But China lies in the east now—and they had their own bout of Mongol conquest—and is the real source of threats to the territorial integrity of Russia. And China doesn't have to advance far to do real damage. Russia has very little strategic depth in the populated areas of the Pacific Far East. Which also lie at the end of a long and vulnerable rail line from European Russia.
And then there's Central Asia.
Perhaps another round of reforms and rebuilding Russia's military will work. I wouldn't assume it in Moscow. But who knows? Maybe the beating with the clue bat the last three years has been instructive. Or maybe the corruption-saturated Russian Feudal governing structure will doom this one, too:
We don't know exactly what goes on within the Kremlin. However, we do know that the apex of Russian politics behaves very much like an organized crime family. Putin is very likely to turn to each oligarch and say, “Now it’s time for you to pay for this military operation.” The oligarchs don’t spend money from their coffers out of fidelity to Mother Russia but because they are on the hook for paying back favors they received from the Kremlin. The oligarchs who funded the annexation of Crimea, for example, received a multibillion-dollar contract to build a bridge connecting that peninsula over the Kerch Strait to Russia. Let’s say that bridge cost $2 billion to build and the oligarch receives a $5 billion payment from the state. That oligarch then reinvests part of that $3 billion profit back into the state in support of the Kremlin’s policy agenda, so that he can stay in good standing.
Russia invaded Ukraine anyway with this insufficient model for anything but a short and glorious war.
More important is making sure the military serves Russian interests. Strategery 3.0 that continues a self-destructive and needless paranoid obsession with NATO does nothing to preserve Holy Mother Russia. Will Russia reconstitute that strategic myopia?
NOTE: I made the meme. If I use one, I made it unless otherwise credited.